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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 38

Miami Dolphins 3 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(:27) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 28-D.Achane.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.50 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP