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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 15

Green Bay Packers 27 – Miami Dolphins 11

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 17-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 15, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model