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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2024-12-01 · 16:05 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

LA
43.9%
NO
56.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Derek Carr (NO): +0.228 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO defense: +0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NO on 7 more days rest than LA
  • NO offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

LA 24
–
NO 25
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

LA

Tyler Higbee TE Out Knee
K.T. Leveston T Out Ankle
Alaric Jackson T Questionable Foot
Nick Hampton LB Questionable Triceps

NO

Lucas Patrick G Out Calf
Erik McCoy C Questionable Groin
Tanoh Kpassagnon DE Questionable Achilles
Jamaal Williams RB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 21
–
NO 14

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:53 FG NO (8:53) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. LA 0 – NO 3
  • Q2 00:07 FG NO (:07) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. LA 0 – NO 6
  • Q3 08:56 TD LA (8:56) 23-K.Williams left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – NO 6
  • Q4 15:00 TD LA (15:00) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – NO 6
  • Q4 11:58 TD NO (11:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-64-N.Saldiveri was injured during the play. LA 14 – NO 12
  • Q4 08:57 TD LA (8:57) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – NO 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 39%

    (12:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 81-K.Austin to LA 45 for 4 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 12 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 70%

    (8:53) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:53) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to NO 25, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 16 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

    (15:00) 19-B.Grupe 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 46%

    (12:27) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford up the middle to NO 42 for 4 yards (5-W.Harris).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 88%

    (9:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:24) 43-M.Hayball punts 46 yards to LA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 41%

    (1:57) 42-E.Evans punts 35 yards to NO 13, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 70%

    (:07) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:24) 43-M.Hayball punts 49 yards to LA 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-X.Smith to LA 20 for no gain (48-J.Gray; 36-R.Payton).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 13 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 39%

    (3:44) 42-E.Evans punts 36 yards to NO 13, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith. PENALTY on LA-19-X.Smith, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NO 13.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 34%

    (2:11) 43-M.Hayball punts 33 yards to LA 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 70%

    (4:49) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left tackle to LA 34 for 2 yards (8-J.Verse; 14-C.Durant). NO-7-T.Hill was injured during the play. LA-8-J.Verse was injured during the play.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 97%

    (1:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LA 18 for -9 yards (8-J.Verse). FUMBLES (8-J.Verse) [8-J.Verse], recovered by NO-10-M.Valdes-Scantling at LA 18. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (8-J.Verse) [8-J.Verse].