Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 6 – Los Angeles Rams 7

(7:24) 43-M.Hayball punts 49 yards to LA 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-X.Smith to LA 20 for no gain (48-J.Gray; 36-R.Payton).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.14 EP
64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model