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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 4 at the 25
Los Angeles Rams 0 – New Orleans Saints 3
What Actually Happened
(9:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Kupp.
The Three Options
GO
+1.56 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.41 EP
- 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP
KICK
+1.36 EP
- 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
- 12% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT
+0.29 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
