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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 43-M.Hayball punts 46 yards to LA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.70 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 58, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model