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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to NO 25, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.55 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model