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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 46

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(12:27) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford up the middle to NO 42 for 4 yards (5-W.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.32 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT +0.38 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth +0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model