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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 9

New Orleans Saints 14 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LA 18 for -9 yards (8-J.Verse). FUMBLES (8-J.Verse) [8-J.Verse], recovered by NO-10-M.Valdes-Scantling at LA 18. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (8-J.Verse) [8-J.Verse].

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.02 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP