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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 36

New Orleans Saints 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.73 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model