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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 36

New Orleans Saints 14 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(4:49) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left tackle to LA 34 for 2 yards (8-J.Verse; 14-C.Durant). NO-7-T.Hill was injured during the play. LA-8-J.Verse was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.23 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model