4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2024-12-01 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

ARI
41.9%
MIN
58.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: -0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Kyler Murray (ARI): +0.167 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ARI offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

ARI 23
–
MIN 25
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

ARI

Joey Blount S Questionable Hip
Emari Demercado RB Questionable Back
Darius Robinson DT Questionable Calf
Jalen Thompson S Questionable Ankle

MIN

Josh Oliver TE Out Ankle
Jay Ward S Out Elbow
Cam Robinson T Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 22
–
MIN 23

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:05 FG ARI (9:05) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 3 – MIN 0
  • Q1 04:44 FG MIN (4:44) 96-J.Romo 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright. ARI 3 – MIN 3
  • Q2 06:05 FG ARI (6:05) 38-C.Ryland 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 6 – MIN 3
  • Q2 01:16 FG MIN (1:16) 96-J.Romo 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright. ARI 6 – MIN 6
  • Q2 00:02 FG ARI (:02) 38-C.Ryland 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 9 – MIN 6
  • Q3 08:38 FG ARI (8:38) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 12 – MIN 6
  • Q3 04:43 TD ARI (4:43) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-M.Harrison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 18 – MIN 6
  • Q3 01:24 TD MIN (1:24) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 86-J.Mundt for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 19 – MIN 12
  • Q4 11:11 FG MIN (11:11) 96-J.Romo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright. ARI 19 – MIN 16
  • Q4 03:23 FG ARI (3:23) 38-C.Ryland 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 22 – MIN 16
  • Q4 01:18 TD MIN (1:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 33-A.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 22 – MIN 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%

    (9:05) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 87%

    (4:44) 96-J.Romo 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:31) 12-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to MIN 14, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 18 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 86%

    (14:22) 38-C.Ryland 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:22) 17-R.Wright punts 59 yards to ARI 9, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 16 for 7 yards (6-B.Asamoah).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (6:05) 38-C.Ryland 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 14 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 68%

    (1:16) 96-J.Romo 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 88%

    (13:31) 96-J.Romo 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%

    (8:38) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:08) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to ARI 24, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 4-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 27 for 3 yards (98-B.Richter).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (11:11) 96-J.Romo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (3:23) 38-C.Ryland 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 76%

    (2:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to ARI 21 for 12 yards (53-B.Browning) [54-X.Thomas].

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 1-S.Griffin [52-Ji.Ward] at MIN 45. 1-S.Griffin to MIN 45 for no gain (18-M.Harrison).