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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 25

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 96-J.Romo 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.13 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model