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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 33

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Arizona Cardinals 22

What Actually Happened

(2:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to ARI 21 for 12 yards (53-B.Browning) [54-X.Thomas].

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.61 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 43, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model