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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 17-R.Wright punts 59 yards to ARI 9, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 16 for 7 yards (6-B.Asamoah).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 26, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model