Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 22 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 1-S.Griffin [52-Ji.Ward] at MIN 45. 1-S.Griffin to MIN 45 for no gain (18-M.Harrison).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.43 EP
65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -1.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.78 EP