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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 4

Arizona Cardinals 19 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 38-C.Ryland 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 4, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP