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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 26

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 96-J.Romo 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.07 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model