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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 13

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.93 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP