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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 37

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 96-J.Romo 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.39 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model