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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2024-11-24 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

DAL
17.0%
WAS
83.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: -0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Cooper Rush (DAL): -0.123 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL defense: +0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • WAS on 4 more days rest than DAL

Predicted Final Score

DAL 17
–
WAS 29
Projected margin: WAS by 12 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

DAL

Markquese Bell S Out Shoulder
Jake Ferguson TE Out Concussion
Zack Martin G Doubtful Ankle
Nick Vigil LB Questionable Foot
Chuma Edoga T Questionable Toe
Brandin Cooks WR Questionable Knee
Trevon Diggs CB Questionable Groin
Marshawn Kneeland DE Questionable Knee
Tyler Smith G Questionable Ankle

WAS

Marshon Lattimore CB Out Hamstring
Nick Bellore LB Questionable Knee
Javontae Jean-Baptiste DE Questionable Ankle
Austin Seibert K Questionable Right Hip

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 34
–
WAS 26

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:04 FG WAS (9:04) 3-A.Seibert 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. DAL 0 – WAS 3
  • Q2 00:07 FG DAL (:07) 17-B.Aubrey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – WAS 3
  • Q3 09:59 TD WAS (9:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – WAS 9
  • Q3 04:45 TD DAL (4:45) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 1-J.Tolbert for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-C.Ferrell]. DAL 9 – WAS 9
  • Q4 08:14 FG DAL (8:14) 17-B.Aubrey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Penalty on DAL-67-B.Hoffman, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on WAS-92-D.Armstrong, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. DAL 13 – WAS 9
  • Q4 05:21 TD DAL (5:21) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep middle to 86-L.Schoonmaker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 19 – WAS 9
  • Q4 03:06 TD WAS (3:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 20 – WAS 15
  • Q4 03:02 TD DAL 3-A.Seibert kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to DAL 4. 9-K.Turpin MUFFS catch, and recovers at DAL 1. 9-K.Turpin for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 26 – WAS 17
  • Q4 01:44 FG WAS (1:44) 3-A.Seibert 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. DAL 27 – WAS 20
  • Q4 00:33 TD WAS (:33) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 27 – WAS 26
  • Q4 00:21 TD DAL 3-A.Seibert kicks onside 8 yards from WAS 35 to WAS 43. 30-J.Thomas for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 33 – WAS 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (11:36) 17-B.Aubrey 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (20-Q.Martin), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger, RECOVERED by WAS-24-M.Davis at WAS 26. 24-M.Davis pushed ob at DAL 40 for 34 yards (76-A.Richards).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 89%

    (9:04) 3-A.Seibert 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 88%

    (3:42) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 76%

    (:48) 3-A.Seibert 51 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 47%

    (14:54) 10-T.Way punts 38 yards to DAL 6, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 42%

    (8:22) 10-T.Way punts 39 yards to DAL 7, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:30) 5-B.Anger punts 23 yards to DAL 39, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-40-H.Luepke.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 37%

    (2:40) 5-B.Anger punts 32 yards to WAS 16, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:56) 10-T.Way punts 41 yards to DAL 14, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-69-T.Ott.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:56) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to DAL 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 14 for -2 yards (35-P.Butler).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 12 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:00) 5-B.Anger punts 43 yards to WAS 45, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 27%

    (:27) 10-T.Way punts 39 yards to DAL 13, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 25%

    (12:53) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to WAS 5, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-85-P.Fant.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (11:25) 10-T.Way punts 39 yards to 50, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 80%

    (8:14) 17-B.Aubrey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Penalty on DAL-67-B.Hoffman, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on WAS-92-D.Armstrong, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 32%

    (:40) 5-B.Anger punts 36 yards to WAS 14, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.