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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 17

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 17-B.Aubrey 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (20-Q.Martin), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger, RECOVERED by WAS-24-M.Davis at WAS 26. 24-M.Davis pushed ob at DAL 40 for 34 yards (76-A.Richards).

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.95 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model