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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(:40) 5-B.Anger punts 36 yards to WAS 14, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +0.87 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 50, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP