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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 48

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 5-B.Anger punts 32 yards to WAS 16, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.06 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model