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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 84

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 5-B.Anger punts 23 yards to DAL 39, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-40-H.Luepke.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.48 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 42, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP