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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 52

Washington Commanders 9 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(:27) 10-T.Way punts 39 yards to DAL 13, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.78 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model