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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 17-B.Aubrey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Penalty on DAL-67-B.Hoffman, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on WAS-92-D.Armstrong, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.22 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model