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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 32

Washington Commanders 3 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(:48) 3-A.Seibert 51 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.97 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP