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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 88

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-B.Anger punts 43 yards to WAS 45, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.89 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 88, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model