4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Thursday 2024-11-14 · 20:15 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

WAS
51.8%
PHI
48.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.213 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.149 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 24
–
PHI 22
Projected margin: WAS by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

WAS

Nick Bellore LB Out Knee
Marshon Lattimore CB Out Hamstring
Austin Seibert K Out Right Hip
Brandon Coleman T Questionable Shoulder
Cornelius Lucas T Questionable Ankle
Andrew Wylie T Questionable Shoulder

PHI

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 18
–
PHI 26

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:32 TD WAS (3:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – PHI 0
  • Q2 00:22 FG PHI (:22) 4-J.Elliott 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. WAS 7 – PHI 3
  • Q3 11:07 FG WAS (11:07) 47-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 10 – PHI 3
  • Q3 05:36 FG PHI (5:36) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. WAS 10 – PHI 6
  • Q4 12:04 TD PHI (12:04) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – PHI 12
  • Q4 05:05 TD PHI (5:05) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – PHI 18
  • Q4 04:45 TD PHI (4:45) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – PHI 25
  • Q4 00:31 TD WAS (:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – PHI 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 13 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 85%

    (9:59) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (8:47) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:36) 10-B.Mann punts 38 yards to WAS 42, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-81-G.Calcaterra.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:26) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to WAS 7, Center-49-R.Lovato. 14-O.Zaccheaus ran ob at WAS 17 for 10 yards (53-Z.Baun). PENALTY on WAS-1-N.Igbinoghene, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 11.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (:12) 10-T.Way punts 44 yards to PHI 44, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-C.DeJean to WAS 48 for 8 yards (39-J.Reaves).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 72%

    (11:40) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:57) 10-T.Way punts 39 yards to PHI 26, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (8:21) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to WAS 24, Center-49-R.Lovato. 14-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 27 for 3 yards (21-S.Brown).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 38%

    (4:17) 10-T.Way punts 36 yards to PHI 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (:22) 4-J.Elliott 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 83%

    (11:07) 47-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (5:36) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:39) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 24 for 12 yards (58-J.Magee).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 85%

    (8:01) (No Huddle) 5-J.Daniels right end pushed ob at PHI 26 for no gain (53-Z.Baun, 32-R.Blankenship).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 87%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to PHI 20 for 4 yards (32-R.Blankenship).