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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 26

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 12

What Actually Happened

(8:01) (No Huddle) 5-J.Daniels right end pushed ob at PHI 26 for no gain (53-Z.Baun, 32-R.Blankenship).

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.36 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model