Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 63

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

(2:39) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 24 for 12 yards (58-J.Magee).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.71 EP
67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model