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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 3

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(:22) 4-J.Elliott 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +3.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.47 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 3, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP