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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 88

Washington Commanders 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(:12) 10-T.Way punts 44 yards to PHI 44, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-C.DeJean to WAS 48 for 8 yards (39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.37 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 88, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.82 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 46, worth -2.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP