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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 24

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 26

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to PHI 20 for 4 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.53 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model