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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.31 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model