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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 58

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to WAS 7, Center-49-R.Lovato. 14-O.Zaccheaus ran ob at WAS 17 for 10 yards (53-Z.Baun). PENALTY on WAS-1-N.Igbinoghene, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 11.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.89 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 58, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP