4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 60

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.96 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 19, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model