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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2024-11-03 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

CHI
40.3%
ARI
59.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ARI: Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.115 vs Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.076 EPA/dropback
  • ARI defense: +0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CHI defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 22
–
ARI 24
Projected margin: ARI by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

CHI

Kiran Amegadjie T Out Calf
Jaquan Brisker S Out Concussion
Braxton Jones T Out Knee
Montez Sweat DE Questionable Shin
Larry Borom T Questionable Ankle
Ryan Bates C Questionable Shoulder
Kyler Gordon CB Questionable Hamstring
Teven Jenkins T Questionable Knee

ARI

Darius Robinson DT Out Calf
Jonah Williams T Out Knee
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Questionable Neck
Naquan Jones DT Questionable Thigh
Roy Lopez DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 9
–
ARI 29

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:51 TD ARI (:51) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 85-T.McBride left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – ARI 6
  • Q2 11:54 FG CHI (11:54) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 3 – ARI 7
  • Q2 09:14 FG CHI (9:14) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 6 – ARI 7
  • Q2 03:18 TD ARI (3:18) 33-T.Benson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-44-N.Sewell, Defensive Offside, declined. CHI 6 – ARI 13
  • Q2 00:30 FG CHI (:30) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 9 – ARI 14
  • Q2 00:12 TD ARI (:12) (Shotgun) 31-E.Demercado right tackle for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – ARI 20
  • Q3 04:55 FG ARI (4:55) 38-C.Ryland 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Penalty on CHI-29-T.Stevenson, Defensive Offside, declined. CHI 9 – ARI 24
  • Q4 14:07 FG ARI (14:07) 38-C.Ryland 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. CHI 9 – ARI 27
  • Q4 07:58 SAF ARI (7:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 84-M.Lewis. PENALTY on CHI-4-D.Swift, Chop Block, 1 yard, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. CHI 9 – ARI 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:41) 12-B.Gillikin punts 51 yards to CHI 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-D.Carter to CHI 21 for 6 yards (44-O.Pappoe).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 20 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 39%

    (7:19) 19-T.Taylor punts 39 yards to ARI 10, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 17 for 7 yards (57-J.Sanborn).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:34) 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to CHI 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-D.Carter to CHI 16 for 7 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-20-D.Dallas has returned to the game.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:37) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to ARI 32, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-G.Dortch to CHI 41 for 27 yards (20-T.Homer).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (11:54) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 73%

    (9:14) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 73%

    (:30) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:59) 19-T.Taylor punts 62 yards to ARI 3, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 20 for 17 yards (45-A.Ogbongbemiga).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (4:55) 38-C.Ryland 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Penalty on CHI-29-T.Stevenson, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 39%

    (1:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 13-K.Allen pushed ob at ARI 43 for 6 yards (16-M.Melton).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 51%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 40 for -16 yards (25-Z.Collins).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 68%

    (14:07) 38-C.Ryland 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:06) 19-T.Taylor punts 67 yards to ARI 6, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 20 for 14 yards (44-N.Sewell, 22-E.Hicks). CHI-21-J.Jones was injured during the play.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 46%

    (8:30) 12-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to CHI 1, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-32-J.Blount.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 86%

    (7:36) 1-K.Murray FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 30, RECOVERED by CHI-31-K.Byard at CHI 26.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 61%

    (4:41) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 13-K.Allen.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:26) 12-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to CHI 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-52-V.Dimukeje.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to CHI 48 for 6 yards (51-K.Barnes) [52-V.Dimukeje].