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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 37

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 38-C.Ryland 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.80 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model