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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Chicago Bears
4th & 5 at the 40
Chicago Bears 9 – Arizona Cardinals 29
What Actually Happened
(4:41) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 13-K.Allen.
The Three Options
GO
+1.03 EP
What Happened
-
44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.36 EP
- 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -0.77 EP
KICK
+1.09 EP
Model's Pick
- 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
- 39% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT
-0.16 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
