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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 35

Chicago Bears 3 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.16 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model