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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 11

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 38-C.Ryland 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Penalty on CHI-29-T.Stevenson, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.45 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model