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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 29 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 12-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to CHI 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-52-V.Dimukeje.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.58 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model