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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 58

Chicago Bears 9 – Arizona Cardinals 29

What Actually Happened

(:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to CHI 48 for 6 yards (51-K.Barnes) [52-V.Dimukeje].

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.75 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -0.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model