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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 20 at the 49

Chicago Bears 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 19-T.Taylor punts 39 yards to ARI 10, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 17 for 7 yards (57-J.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.92 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model