Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to CHI 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-D.Carter to CHI 16 for 7 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-20-D.Dallas has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.61 EP
64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model