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Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2024-10-27 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

CAR
20.1%
DEN
79.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.235 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.133 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Bo Nix (DEN) -0.161 vs Bryce Young (CAR) -0.366 EPA/dropback (CAR starting Bryce Young in place of Andy Dalton)
  • CAR defense: +0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • DEN on 3 more days rest than CAR

Predicted Final Score

CAR 16
–
DEN 25
Projected margin: DEN by 9 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CAR

Diontae Johnson WR Out Rib
Jammie Robinson S Out Knee
Nick Scott S Out Hamstring
Adam Thielen WR Out Hamstring
Jordan Fuller S Out Hamstring
D.J. Wonnum LB Out Quadricep
Andy Dalton QB Doubtful Right Thumb
Jonathon Brooks RB Doubtful Knee
Dane Jackson CB Doubtful Hamstring
Jadeveon Clowney LB Questionable Shoulder
Jaden Crumedy DT Questionable Ankle
Sam Franklin S Questionable Foot
Tommy Tremble TE Questionable Back
Claudin Cherelus LB Questionable Hamstring
Josey Jewell LB Questionable Hamstring
Taylor Moton T Questionable Elbow
Yosuah Nijman T Questionable Knee
A'Shawn Robinson DE Questionable Knee

DEN

P.J. Locke S Doubtful nan
Alex Palczewski T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 14
–
DEN 28

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:15 TD CAR (7:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 17-X.Legette for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-J.Franklin-Myers]. CAR 6 – DEN 0
  • Q2 12:34 TD DEN (12:34) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 45-N.Adkins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – DEN 6
  • Q2 06:56 TD DEN (6:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 82-A.Trautman for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – DEN 13
  • Q2 01:16 TD DEN (1:16) 10-B.Nix up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – DEN 20
  • Q3 06:55 TD DEN (6:55) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 38-J.McLaughlin for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – DEN 27
  • Q4 00:23 TD CAR (:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 18-J.Coker for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – DEN 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 18 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 56%

    (2:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to CAR 1, impetus ends at CAR 1, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-34-J.Skinner.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:31) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DEN 45, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:06) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to DEN 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-M.Mims to DEN 24 for 8 yards (49-J.Rhattigan; 53-C.Cherelus). CAR-84-F.Franks was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-43-K.Smith, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at DEN 16.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 30%

    (4:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 6-M.Sanders to CAR 48 for -1 yards (2-P.Surtain).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:57) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to DEN 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:30) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DEN 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:28) (Punt formation) 10-J.Hekker pass incomplete short left to 42-S.Franklin.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 87%

    (3:02) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 82-T.Tremble INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 11. 2-P.Surtain pushed ob at DEN 39 for 28 yards (17-X.Legette).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to CAR 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 3-R.Blackshear.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (14:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DEN 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 53%

    (10:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Dixon pass short middle to 85-L.Krull to CAR 39 for 3 yards (48-T.Incoom).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to DEN 49 for 8 yards (22-B.Jones).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 50%

    (4:29) 14-C.Sutton pass deep right to 20-M.Burton to CAR 15 for 28 yards (56-T.Wallace; 25-X.Woods).