4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 18 at the 41

Denver Broncos 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to CAR 1, impetus ends at CAR 1, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-34-J.Skinner.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.56 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model