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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 42

Denver Broncos 28 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Dixon pass short middle to 85-L.Krull to CAR 39 for 3 yards (48-T.Incoom).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.50 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model